The market really wanted a 1/4 point with a “one and done statement” and they didn’t get it.  So where do we go now?  I think we are going to stay range bound going into the end of the year with lots of action to play with.

This is going to be a traders game for the next 3 months.  I’m going to buy and sell spring SPY options on all really big moves up and down.  I’m going to short or long the VIX above 30 and and below 18.  I’ll add to Oil (WTI) on moves below $42ish.  I’ll exit the OIL position I have left if we spike above $50 again, I feel good that I’ll get another chance to get back in at these levels, or lower.

I’m going to start building a shopping list in the event that we do get a big pull back.  I’m about 2/3 cash right now and I’m waiting to get a sense of where the markets want to go before I do anything other than trade the swings.

This week is the big one (fed week), I’m personally hoping for a small 1/4 point raise on Thursday.  If we get a raise I think we may get a very short knee jerk pull back, but then I think we will rally hard into the end of the year.  If we don’t get a raise we will need the fed to basically say there are going in Oct or Dec with very strong language.  If they don’t raise, and are vague, then I think we face downward pressure into next year.  If the market really sells hard into Thursday I may enter some short term bets late on Wednesday.  I’m going to look at a Wednesday Strangle or Straddle if the conditions look right.

Oil is grinding down, which should open up a window to start getting back into my USO Jan, 2017 position.  If we get a big pull back into the mid 30’s on WTI this will be a really really solid trade.

I entered a short on the VIX when it spiked above 28 last week, and exited it on Friday with a 50% profit.  If the VIX spikes above 30 or more 25% in a day I’ll buy the 30 day short.

I have 1/3 of my USO position left, its still up 30% but I’m really looking for a big selloff so I can get back to fully positioned on this trade.

Wednesday and Thursday morning, big days to make some moves.

I wanted to get a quick update on the books, watching the markets get crushed again, down almost 2% on the day.  Jobs number came out a little weak but nothing special. This is the last long weekend of summer and based on how insane markets have been I am not at all surprised on this move.  US Markets are closed on Monday but Asia markets are open so if something funky happens all the big boys would be jammed up with markets closed.  I’m probably going to add a little to my SPY spring calls.  They are up a little and I usually don’t add to positions when I’m in the profit range, but I think there is some good upside going into next week with a short term bounce.

I exited 2/3rd of my OIL position earlier in the week since it broke back over $47, but more importantly it did is so fast that the call side of the options spread got a little extra juice in it.  This is probably one of my best trades ever, I bought in and kept buying as it fell.  This was close to a Triple, yes a 300% return in just over 2 weeks.  So great.

I’m going to research some strategies over the weekend on shorting the vix on a longer term position.  I have a short that is going to zero but I had another one that doubled.  I have to figure out how to structure a spread far enough out.

I’m going to keep at least 10k on the side lines for the next fall in oil.  I’ll look to build back up on my Jan 17 USO calls as it comes back down, probably look to enter on anything below $43ish for WTI.  If it breaks above $48 again I’ll fully exit the last third of my position and then wait.

Lets all hope for a .25 point raise in September, not sure what the very short term reaction will be, but it will give the market a good chance at a great rally into the end of the year.